dijous, 4 d’abril de 2013

Making Probability Statements from Forecast

Hi,

In this lesson I learnt, how can I accurate my forecast by correcting past bias. Whether the summa of the past bias excess by one, we must correct by multiplying our past forecast by errors mean, and then if we reckon the standard deviation of the errors of the new forecast corrected;  I will know if the accuracy of our forecast.

In my opinion, this correction is useful if there isn't any chances in the figures under we calculated our past forecast, we could correct; however we have to make changes in the levels of productions, expenditures, revenues... that it could affect the figures forecast, in this case the correction I don't know if it could be ok, because we operate in other scale and casuistic.


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